Tag: Wave

Covid-19 Third Wave Won’t End Until 2021

As the United States heads into the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, planning trips for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays is going to be much trickier this year. The most influential public health experts, Covid-19 trackers and models are all predicting that this surge will be bigger, longer and deadlier than the first two.

While President Trump continues to say that the country is “rounding the turn,” all the key metrics are going hard in the wrong direction.

The number of new daily cases is climbing at a dangerous pace. Just nine days ago, when the U.S. was reporting roughly 40,000 new coronavirus cases a day, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told MSNBC, “I would like to see that level, way, way down, well below 10,000.”

Yesterday, the United States recorded 63,610 new Covid-19 cases, according data from Johns Hopkins University. That number is on a similar level to what the country was seeing in mid-July as the country was climbing the second peak.

The U.S. recently surpassed 8 million Covid-19 cases and 218,000 deaths, but we’re nowhere near to being out of the woods. The death toll is projected to steadily rise throughout the fall and winter until it peaks in mid-January, according to the often-cited model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The same model predicts the illness will claim 171,000 additional fatalities — a whopping 78% increase — between now and February 1, 2021.

For anyone planning a trip between now and early 2021, several Covid-19 tracking tools can help get a handle on how rampant the virus is in your destination.

If you’re traveling in the coming days, turn to the Covid-19 risk-assessment map run by Harvard Global Health Institute and Brown School of Public Health. The color-coded map provides an easy way to assess how quickly the disease is spreading in a state or county. Each community has a rating of green, yellow, orange or red, based upon the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people over a seven-day rolling average. The number of high-risk states has skyrocketed from four to 17 in the past month.

If your trip is further out, there is a better metric to look at. According to Dr. Fauci, the best predictor of the next hot spot is a rising positivity rate. You can consult Johns Hopkins University’s Covid-19 percent positive map to find out which states are most likely to turn into hot spots. Alarmingly, 29 states — more than half the country — have reported rising positivity rates for two consecutive weeks.


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The Most Unhealthy Places To Travel During The Second Wave Of COVID-19

As a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic looms on the horizon, travel has gone from risky to downright dangerous. To put it bluntly, some places are bad for your health. A list of the most unhealthy places to travel during the second wave of COVID-19 would sure be useful right about now.

With daily new COVID cases soaring past the 50,000 mark in the United States, this is no time for a vacation. But it’s been a long lockdown, and some people need to get away. If they do, they don’t need someone to tell them where to go — they need someone to tell them where not to go.

If you’re wondering where the most unhealthy places are to visit during the coronavirus outbreak, here’s a definitive guide.

The kind of places that are unhealthy for travel during the second wave of COVID-19

Any destination with lots of COVID cases. If you want to know where the hotspots are, check out this map from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. Avoid dark red areas. The university also publishes a world map where you can quickly find the hotspots. Want to know what the map will look like in the future? Try the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center at the University of Washington. For example, here’s what U.S. infections will look like in a few months. Also, look for the World Travel & Tourism Council’s Safe Travels stamp to assure the destination is doing everything it can to contain the virus.

Any place with large gatherings or lots of people. Concerts, fairs, and other social gatherings, including outdoor venues such as theme parks, are off-limits, says Sheela Shenoi, medical director, general infectious diseases at Yale Medicine. “Any travel plans should emphasize spending time in settings where you can avoid or minimize contact with other people,” she adds.

Any destination you’re not allowed to visit as an American. Obvious, right? Well, no. I’m only mentioning this because clever travelers have found ways around the travel bans. So most of Europe is off-limits now, for example. And that’s especially true now, with COVID cases spiking in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. 

Any place with a returning quarantine. Take Aruba, for example. If you visited the Caribbean island earlier this month and came home to Kansas, you needed to quarantine for 14 days. Why? Since early September, Aruba’s coronavirus case rates have increased to more than four times the Kansas rate, according to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment The Centers for Disease Control warns that the risk of contracting COVID-19 risk in Aruba is high. So if you were thinking of taking a tropical vacation this fall, you might want to think twice about Aruba.

Here are some of the most unhealthy places to visit during COVID-19

But where should you avoid during the second wave of the COVID-19

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